trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 57% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 57% | 0% | -9.1% |
| all | 26 | -2.1% | -11.4% | 65% | 4% | -10.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.4% | 4% | -10.2% |
| 10% | -19.9% | 4% | -18.8% |
| 15% | -27.6% | 0% | -26.7% |
| 20% | -34.7% | 0% | -33.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $46 | $46 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 17 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 04 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 01 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 31 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 31 | $42 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 29 | $24 | +$1 | +4% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 29 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 29 | $20 | −$3 | -16% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 28 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 28 | $34 | +$1 | +3% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 27 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 27 | $44 | +$3 | +8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 26 | $39 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 25 | $45 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after | Dec 09 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 | Jun 26 | $8 | $0 | +2% |
| Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jun 06 | $2 | −$1 | -51% |
| Will Oracle buy TikTok? | Jun 04 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? | Jun 03 | $7 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? | May 31 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? | May 10 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? | Apr 19 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? | Mar 21 | $8 | +$2 | +30% |
| Northern Arizona vs. Idaho State | Mar 03 | $16 | −$8 | -52% |
| Sharks vs. Sabres | Mar 03 | $14 | $0 | +0% |