Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x459c…9be1 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+2%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$157
sports 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -55.2% -59.4% 29% 29% -47.3%
≤30d 12 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 50% -39.5%
≤90d 12 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 50% -39.5%
all 12 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 50% -39.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 50% -39.5%
10% -16.5% 50% -45.3%
15% -24.6% 33% -50.5%
20% -32.0% 25% -55.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$44 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage21d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $55 −$54 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$19 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $40 +$34 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $125 +$36 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 31 $12 +$35 +294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 31 $9 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 31 $7 +$2 +30%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $3 +$4 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 30 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records