Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45a0…4be5 crypto 237 markets active 5d ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$97 (-1%) realized −$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%135W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$734
14 days−$404
30 days−$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$191
crypto 30% −$155
other 22% +$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.4% -5.5% 44% 44% -25.0%
≤30d 235 -1.5% -10.9% 57% 57% -11.5%
≤90d 235 -1.5% -10.9% 57% 57% -11.5%
all 235 -1.5% -10.9% 57% 57% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 57% -11.5%
10% -19.4% 57% -20.0%
15% -27.2% 57% -27.7%
20% -34.3% 51% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$42 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses135 / 100
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)235 / 237
History coverage18d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 235 Trades
no open positions (98 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $619 −$610 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $203 +$182 +90%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $608 −$600 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $304 +$196 +65%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $305 −$41 -14%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $964 +$592 +61%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $255 +$607 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$18 +55%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $204 +$284 +140%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$17 +52%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $31 +$219 +712%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$268 +262%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $405 +$253 +63%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $77 −$6 -8%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $152 +$111 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $33 +$21 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$31 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$84 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $27 +$24 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $32 +$19 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $34 +$32 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $34 +$18 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $33 +$20 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $34 +$18 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $33 +$19 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$21 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $62 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $619 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 43¢ $102 5d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $608 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $203 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1,013 6d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Col BUY 29¢ $102 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $263 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $304 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $305 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $609 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $332 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $33 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $34 7d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $355 7d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 7d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 29¢ $255 7d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $33 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $32 7d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 7d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $202 7d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $204 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $33 8d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 8d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 8d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 8d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 8d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 386 history records