Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:38:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45a0…5963 crypto 669 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%306W / 363L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day43.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,703
other 9% −$1,195
world 1% −$143
politics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +5.8% -4.2% 58% 48% -10.6%
≤30d 367 -14.5% -22.7% 46% 41% -15.5%
≤90d 669 -11.8% -20.2% 46% 41% -17.5%
all 669 -11.8% -20.2% 46% 41% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 41% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 37% -25.4%
15% -34.8% 32% -32.6%
20% -41.2% 24% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$36 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses306 / 363
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)669 / 669
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day43.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 669 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $75 +$31 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$25 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$11 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$2 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$11 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$13 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$17 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $32 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records