Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45a2…be25 other 122 markets active 19h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$372 (+0%) realized +$372 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate19%23W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$836per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$557now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$1
14 days−$6
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$803
politics 38% −$42
sports 14% −$399
culture 3% −$3
world 2% −$1
economics 2% +$1
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 87 -17.3% -25.2% 5% 0% -11.0%
all 121 -4.3% -13.4% 19% 11% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 11% -9.2%
10% -21.7% 10% -17.9%
15% -29.2% 8% -25.8%
20% -36.2% 7% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,091) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$14 · ×5.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$557
Realized+$372
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses23 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage123d
Avg bet$836
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $557 $557 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $559 +$3 +1%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,857 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,619 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,444 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $418 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 03 $366 +$1 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,313 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,646 −$2 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,021 −$2 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $828 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 20 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,075 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $2,343 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,038 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $2,494 −$3 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $2,126 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,087 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $4,521 −$5 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $2,016 −$3 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $5,786 −$6 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1,939 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,446 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $2,663 −$3 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,481 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $393 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $472 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $477 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $432 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $470 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $400 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $557 19h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $252 3d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $252 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $460 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $460 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $461 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $461 4d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $350 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $350 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $356 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $357 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $348 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $349 10d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $489 10d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $490 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $415 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $415 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $418 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $419 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $412 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $412 13d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $417 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $418 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $156 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $156 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $559 20d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $533 20d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $534 20d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $512 21d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $512 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $556.92 · official $556.92 (match) · 422 history records