trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +600.0% | +533.3% | 33% | 33% | -89.0% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +385.1% | +338.9% | 40% | 40% | +156.0% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +385.1% | +338.9% | 40% | 40% | +156.0% |
| all | 5 | +385.1% | +338.9% | 40% | 40% | +156.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +338.9% | 40% | +156.0% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +296.9% | 40% | +131.5% |
| 15% | +258.5% | 40% | +109.1% |
| 20% | +223.4% | 40% | +88.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $5,522 | $5,552 | +$30 (+1%) |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 66¢ | 54¢ | $5,681 | $4,609 | −$1,073 (-19%) |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 45¢ | $2,313 | $3,856 | +$1,543 (+67%) |
| Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? | No | 60¢ | 62¢ | $285 | $294 | +$9 (+3%) |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in June 2026? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | $155 | $160 | +$5 (+3%) |
| Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 41¢ | 40¢ | $116 | $115 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $32 | $14 | −$18 (-56%) |
| US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | Yes | 41¢ | 16¢ | $10 | $4 | −$6 (-62%) |
| Trump meets with Putin by June 30? | Yes | 4¢ | 2¢ | $6 | $3 | −$3 (-44%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr) | Jun 19 | $10 | −$15 | -146% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? | Jun 19 | $55 | −$55 | -100% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Jun 19 | $0 | +$85 | +22346% |
| Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi | Jun 09 | $1,047 | +$2,358 | +225% |
| Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi | Jun 09 | $131 | −$594 | -452% |