Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:53:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
45 0x45a5…5b1b other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$165 (+20%) realized +$165 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$111
14 days+$176
30 days+$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$190
sports 26% −$11
world 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -8.6% -17.3% 43% 43% +6.1%
≤30d 26 -10.0% -18.6% 42% 42% +9.8%
≤90d 26 -10.0% -18.6% 42% 42% +9.8%
all 26 -10.0% -18.6% 42% 42% +9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 42% +9.8%
10% -26.4% 42% -0.7%
15% -33.5% 42% -10.3%
20% -40.0% 27% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$12 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage11d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $12 +$9 +72%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$12 +41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$44 +44%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $15 +$15 +99%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$29 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $24 −$6 -24%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $58 +$42 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$10 -30%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $6 −$5 -88%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $9 +$5 +60%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $3 +$5 +166%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$50 +50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14 −$3 -23%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 +$10 +43%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -99%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$102 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 64¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 36¢ $12 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $43 2h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $6 10h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 33¢ $8 10h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 10h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $9 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 11h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 11h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $19 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 35¢ $24 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $35 5d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists SELL Yes $1 5d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 40¢ $6 5d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 62¢ $9 6d
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $8 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $151 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records