Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x45a6…f705
sports · 20 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage556d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 0 History 20 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Fulham wins the Premier League? Jun 11 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? May 09 $0 $0 -17%
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? Apr 13 $280 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $1 −$1 -57%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 27 $1 $0 +0%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Dec 14 $0 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 67% −$1
sports 23% $0
politics 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 24d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 24d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 48d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 48d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $6 69d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $6 76d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $8 90d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $8 90d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 110d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 110d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 139d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $9 139d
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 172d
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 172d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8 201d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8 201d
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 229d
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 229d
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7 256d
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 257d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $1 483d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY Yes $1 493d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 524d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 525d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 533d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 533d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 533d
Fulham wins the Premier League? SELL Yes $0 541d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 20 -4.5% -13.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records