Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:28:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45a6…69f3 other 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$105 (+3%) realized +$75 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%29W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$388
7 days−$214
14 days−$231
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -54.2% -58.5% 17% 17% -33.1%
≤30d 44 -37.6% -43.6% 30% 30% -14.5%
≤90d 72 -21.6% -29.0% 40% 33% -14.1%
all 72 -21.6% -29.0% 40% 33% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 33% -14.1%
10% -35.8% 28% -22.4%
15% -42.0% 18% -29.9%
20% -47.7% 12% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$20 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses29 / 43
Open positions3
Markets (closed)72 / 58
History coverage85d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 34¢ $38 $67 +$29 (+76%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $26 $25 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 27 $32 −$3 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $120 +$21 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $193 +$98 +51%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $13 +$63 +499%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $40 −$13 -33%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $18 +$3 +17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 +$4 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $49 −$15 -31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 20 $31 −$17 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $119 +$35 +30%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $14 −$1 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $82 +$46 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $121 +$59 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $32 +$11 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $36 +$4 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $38 +$50 +131%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $39 +$27 +69%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 25 $32 +$12 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 25 $28 −$11 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 25 $32 −$2 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 25 $22 +$4 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $131 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $63 +$41 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $29 12m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $32 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 9h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 9h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 9h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 9h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 22h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 22h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $21 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 31h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 31h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 31h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 36h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $13 37h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $100 38h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $4 38h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $116 38h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 40h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $5 40h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 40h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 40h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 40h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $117 40h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 40h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.73 · official $132.73 · 406 history records