Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:24:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x45a7…cc33
crypto · 1494 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,408 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,414 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized−$1,414
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses737 / 871
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1608 / 1494
History coverage19d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day121.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 1608 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,079
7 days−$1,918
14 days−$1,477
30 days−$1,414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+31%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Yes 87¢ 0¢ $148 $0 −$148 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $594 $0 −$594 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Jun 14 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin Jun 14 $594 −$594 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? Jun 14 $579 −$579 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 30? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% +$605
other 1% +$5
sports 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 15m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 647 -19.9% -27.5% 42% 40% -41.7%
≤30d 1608 -9.2% -17.9% 46% 44% -18.9%
≤90d 1608 -9.2% -17.9% 46% 44% -18.9%
all 1608 -9.2% -17.9% 46% 44% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover121.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 44% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 43% -26.7%
15% -32.9% 42% -33.7%
20% -39.5% 40% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.72 · official $45.72 (match) · 3500 history records