Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45a7…9047 other 537 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$223 (-14%) realized −$223 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%161W / 376L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$12
14 days−$32
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$105
sports 47% −$124
crypto 0% −$5
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -1.5% -10.9% 41% 38% -18.3%
≤30d 242 -13.2% -21.4% 33% 33% -23.5%
≤90d 537 -12.4% -20.8% 30% 29% -22.7%
all 537 -12.4% -20.8% 30% 29% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 29% -22.7%
10% -28.3% 29% -30.1%
15% -35.3% 29% -36.9%
20% -41.6% 28% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$223
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses161 / 376
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)537 / 537
History coverage67d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 537 Trades
no open positions (283 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +69%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$4 +150%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 +$5 +232%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +172%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -87%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -87%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: UD Almería (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will CD Limache win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -56%
Spread: CD Limache (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will CD Concepción vs. CD Limache end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +73%
Spread: CD Limache (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $2 +$6 +280%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 +$3 +161%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$6 +118%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $11 −$9 -80%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +144%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $3 −$3 -87%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$3 +68%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $2 $0 +11%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $2 $0 +8%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 +$7 +245%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 +$4 +197%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will FC Imabari win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 +$5 +163%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Spread: El Salvador (-1.5) Jun 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Will El Salvador win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Armenia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 06 $3 +$3 +112%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $2 +$3 +138%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -97%
Spread: Shōnan Bellmāre (-1.5) Jun 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Shōnan Bellmāre win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $14 −$4 -28%
Will FC Ōsaka win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4 −$2 -39%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $8 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 71¢ $7 1h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 39¢ $7 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $3 2h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 11¢ $2 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $5 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 3h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 2¢ $0 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 0¢ $0 3h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 2¢ $2 4h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 12¢ $2 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 4h
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 9h
Spread: UD Almería (-1.5) BUY UD Almería 11¢ $2 9h
Will CD Limache win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will CD Limache win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 9h
Spread: CD Limache (-1.5) SELL CD Limache 1¢ $0 9h
Will CD Concepción vs. CD Limache end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $3 10h
Spread: CD Limache (-2.5) SELL CD Limache 0¢ $0 10h
Will CD Concepción vs. CD Limache end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 10h
Will CD Limache win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 11h
Spread: CD Limache (-2.5) SELL CD Limache 1¢ $0 11h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind SELL Bigetron by Vitality 99¢ $8 13h
Will CD Limache win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 16h
Spread: CD Limache (-2.5) BUY CD Limache 10¢ $2 16h
Spread: CD Limache (-1.5) BUY CD Limache 21¢ $2 16h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind BUY Bigetron by Vitality 25¢ $2 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 925 history records