Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:55:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
45 0x45ad…55b7 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,314 (+8%) realized +$6,314 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$8,056per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Fees−$953est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$21,918
other 33% +$534
crypto 6% +$3,647
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +26.5% +14.5% 78% 67% +21.7%
≤30d 9 +26.5% +14.5% 78% 67% +21.7%
≤90d 9 +26.5% +14.5% 78% 67% +21.7%
all 9 +26.5% +14.5% 78% 67% +21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.5% 67% +21.7%
10% +3.5% 67% +10.1%
15% ← realistic here -6.5% 56% -0.6%
20% -15.7% 44% -10.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4,544 vs −$2,854 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.57 per $1 lost it wins $5.57
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,314
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$953
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8,056
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $16,990 +$10,755 +63%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10,168 +$6,773 +67%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $4,236 +$3,356 +79%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $3,356 −$698 -21%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $12,530 +$1,034 +8%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $9,668 +$2,865 +30%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5,010 −$5,010 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8,625 +$3,378 +39%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $4,982 +$3,647 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $97 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $3,226 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $4 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $4 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $7 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $89 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $35 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $50 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $500 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $19 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $119 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $25 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $146 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $45 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $596 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $144 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $29 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $29 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $400 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $13 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $20 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $19 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $18 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $10 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $252 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $19 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $14 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $3 34m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $47 34m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $5 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records