Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:17:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45ad…acec crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -7.2% -16.1% 75% 38% -10.4%
≤30d 8 -7.2% -16.1% 75% 38% -10.4%
≤90d 8 -7.2% -16.1% 75% 38% -10.4%
all 8 -7.2% -16.1% 75% 38% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 38% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 25% -19.0%
15% -31.4% 12% -26.8%
20% -38.2% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$19 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $152 −$25 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$14 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $110 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$14 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $28 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $25 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $50 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $27 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $28 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records