Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:39:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
45 0x45ae…82c7 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$112 (-25%) realized −$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$106
world 17% −$7
politics 11% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +21.5% +9.9% 100% 100% +12.7%
≤30d 2 +21.5% +9.9% 100% 100% +12.7%
≤90d 3 -19.0% -26.7% 67% 67% -18.2%
all 9 -2.5% -11.8% 56% 33% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 33% -31.8%
10% -20.2% 22% -38.3%
15% -27.9% 11% -44.3%
20% -35.0% 11% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$38 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage180d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $40 +$10 +26%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 11 $50 $0 +1%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $20 $0 +2%
Devils vs. Golden Knights Mar 04 $198 −$25 -13%
LoL: Team WE vs LGD Gaming (BO3) Mar 04 $43 −$43 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Mar 04 $66 −$66 -100%
Islanders vs. Red Wings Dec 18 $12 +$28 +245%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 58d
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 58d
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 58d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $40 81d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 25¢ $51 95d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 95d
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? SELL No 61¢ $20 102d
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 60¢ $20 102d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Thunder 65¢ $20 160d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Thunder 65¢ $46 160d
LoL: Team WE vs LGD Gaming (BO3) BUY Team WE 43¢ $2 171d
LoL: Team WE vs LGD Gaming (BO3) BUY Team WE 43¢ $3 171d
LoL: Team WE vs LGD Gaming (BO3) BUY Team WE 43¢ $8 171d
LoL: Team WE vs LGD Gaming (BO3) BUY Team WE 43¢ $8 171d
LoL: Team WE vs LGD Gaming (BO3) BUY Team WE 43¢ $8 171d
LoL: Team WE vs LGD Gaming (BO3) BUY Team WE 43¢ $8 171d
LoL: Team WE vs LGD Gaming (BO3) BUY Team WE 43¢ $8 171d
Devils vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 11¢ $3 178d
Devils vs. Golden Knights SELL Devils 49¢ $42 178d
Devils vs. Golden Knights SELL Devils 49¢ $43 178d
Devils vs. Golden Knights SELL Devils 49¢ $14 178d
Devils vs. Golden Knights BUY Devils 49¢ $49 178d
Devils vs. Golden Knights BUY Devils 73¢ $73 178d
Devils vs. Golden Knights SELL Devils 75¢ $75 178d
Devils vs. Golden Knights BUY Devils 73¢ $73 178d
Islanders vs. Red Wings BUY Red Wings 29¢ $12 180d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records