Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:26:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45af…011c politics 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 697d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%6W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% −$21
other 3% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
all 109 -7.8% -16.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -24.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

697d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses6 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)109 / 109
History coverage697d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 109 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $56 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 23 $56 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $56 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 13 $57 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $57 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 29 $57 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 24 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 17 $57 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 06 $57 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Feb 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will Player 162 win Beast Games: Season 2? Feb 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the NFC East? Jan 26 $0 $0 +0%
Will Dara Khosrowshahi be announced as the next CEO of Tesla? Nov 25 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ja Morant win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Everton be relegated? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle United finish in the top 4 of EPL? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Joni Ernst be Trump's Defense Secretary? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman take equity in OpenAI in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jack Bergman be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 11 Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Biden pardon SBF? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
OpenSea blocks US users in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Bengals win the AFC Championship? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'Fortnight' win Song of the Year? Dec 21 $0 $0 -2%
Will Jalen Hurts be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
No change in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech? Dec 10 $0 $0 -4%
Will Micah Parsons win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 10 $0 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will McLaren win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Raiders win the AFC Championship? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Hunter Biden sentenced to probation in gun case? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Berachain launch a token in November? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the AFC West? Dec 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal CF win La Liga? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 14h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 25d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $56 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $0 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $56 35d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 45d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 45d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 49d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 50d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $57 74d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $57 75d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 86d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 87d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $57 89d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $57 90d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $57 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $57 95d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $57 101d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $57 102d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $57 104d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $57 104d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 112d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $57 113d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $57 119d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $57 120d
Will Player 162 win Beast Games: Season 2? SELL No 99¢ $56 139d
Will Player 162 win Beast Games: Season 2? BUY No 100¢ $56 151d
Will Dara Khosrowshahi be announced as the next CEO of Tesla? SELL No 100¢ $56 213d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 235 history records