Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:22:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45b0…560a crypto 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$63 (-1%) realized +$423 · open −$486
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate54%137W / 118L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$58
14 days−$58
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$92
world 34% +$175
other 23% −$135
sports 8% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +18.7% +7.4% 67% 67% -30.6%
≤30d 6 -14.5% -22.6% 50% 50% -27.8%
≤90d 255 -7.2% -16.0% 54% 45% -0.6%
all 255 -7.2% -16.0% 54% 45% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 45% -0.6%
10% -24.1% 34% -10.1%
15% -31.4% 24% -18.8%
20% -38.1% 13% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$423
Unrealized−$486
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses137 / 118
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)255 / 258
History coverage70d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 34¢ 12¢ $200 $74 −$126 (-63%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 90¢ $370 $1 −$369 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Jun 17 $207 −$78 -38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 +$16 +50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $20 +$12 +57%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 +$10 +101%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $350 +$219 +63%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 01 $140 −$140 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $300 +$44 +15%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $14 −$14 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $134 +$585 +435%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $22 −$8 -38%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? Apr 21 $14 −$5 -36%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $21 −$6 -26%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $15 −$11 -76%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? Apr 21 $9 +$4 +45%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $20 +$12 +62%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Apr 20 $78 +$3 +4%
Will US Lecce vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? Apr 20 $15 +$5 +31%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $8 −$3 -32%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $5 −$3 -69%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $49 +$9 +19%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? Apr 19 $2 +$6 +288%
Will Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $10 −$7 -74%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $14 −$10 -67%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Apr 18 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $5 +$2 +49%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? Apr 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 18 $3 $0 -4%
Will Kashima Antlers vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw? Apr 18 $3 −$3 -90%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $2 $0 -3%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 18 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 18 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 18 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 18 $10 +$2 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL No $95 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $31 22h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL No $35 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $70 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $300 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 18d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY No 12¢ $207 32d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 32d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 84¢ $7 43d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY Yes $140 46d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 49d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $350 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $344 50d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $200 52d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $300 52d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No $2 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 55d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No $1 55d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No $1 55d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 55d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 55d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 56d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 56d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 56d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $10 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.56 · official $133.56 (match) · 800 history records