Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:06:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
45 0x45b2…cbc1 weather 696 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$50,330 (+71%) realized +$46,041 · open +$4,289
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%113W / 567L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day35.5pace
Fees−$232est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$10,173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 77d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$1,237
sports 12% +$1,499
world 12% +$5,107
crypto 12% +$4,307
weather 11% −$2,080
politics 11% −$2,705
tech 5% −$1,525
finance 4% −$2,500
economics 2% −$882
culture 1% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +207.4% +178.1% 37% 37% +24.6%
≤30d 49 +207.4% +178.1% 37% 37% +24.6%
≤90d 680 +15.6% +4.6% 17% 17% -15.4%
all 680 +15.6% +4.6% 17% 17% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.6% 17% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -5.4% 16% -23.5%
15% -14.5% 16% -30.9%
20% -22.9% 16% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late +51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$451 vs −$98 · ×4.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$10,173
Realized+$46,041
Unrealized+$4,289
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses113 / 567
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$232
Open positions34
Markets (closed)680 / 696
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$102
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 680 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 19¢ 99¢ $300 $1,567 +$1,267 (+423%)
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No 17¢ 71¢ $300 $1,252 +$953 (+318%)
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? No 19¢ 81¢ $220 $942 +$722 (+329%)
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027? No 19¢ 94¢ $160 $796 +$636 (+397%)
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? Yes 15¢ 38¢ $300 $769 +$470 (+157%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 17¢ 90¢ $100 $532 +$432 (+432%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 28¢ 100¢ $106 $381 +$275 (+259%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? No 7¢ 74¢ $30 $314 +$285 (+962%)
Megaquake by July 31? No 23¢ 57¢ $94 $236 +$141 (+150%)
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 15¢ 87¢ $28 $161 +$133 (+480%)
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $200 $100 −$100 (-50%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 20¢ 96¢ $15 $74 +$58 (+379%)
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 27? No 20¢ 4¢ $200 $36 −$164 (-82%)
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? Yes 13¢ 60¢ $5 $25 +$20 (+362%)
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $43 $22 −$22 (-50%)
Will Tyler Kistner be the Republican Nominee for MN-02? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $300 $10 −$290 (-96%)
Will LI.FI launch a token by September 30, 2027? Yes 2¢ 48¢ $0 $10 +$9 (+2275%)
Will Breece Hall be traded? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $136 $9 −$127 (-93%)
Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026? No 20¢ 98¢ $2 $7 +$6 (+392%)
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $95 $6 −$89 (-94%)
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 26? No 8¢ 2¢ $25 $5 −$20 (-81%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $70 on June 26? No 1¢ 0¢ $91 $5 −$86 (-95%)
Will Alvin Kamara be traded? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+472%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 26 $1 +$7 +614%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 on June 26? Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of t Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 22 above $230? Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 22 above $340? Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 22 above $285? Jun 26 $200 +$590 +295%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $335 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $100 −$99 -99%
Will anyone say "Vibe" 5+ times during Love Island E20? Jun 26 $0 +$1 +1861%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? Jun 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 26? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 25? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 26? Jun 25 $98 −$98 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 25? Jun 25 $167 −$100 -60%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25? Jun 25 $20 +$147 +720%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 25? Jun 25 $25 +$110 +440%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 25? Jun 25 $25 +$99 +398%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 25? Jun 25 $24 +$446 +1861%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C or below on June 2 Jun 25 $12 +$292 +2339%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $25 +$83 +333%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $25 +$67 +269%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $25 +$105 +424%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $276 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 25 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Bob Menery enter the ring against Johnny Manziel? Jun 25 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? Jun 25 $3 +$21 +733%
Will Green Left be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 25 $8 +$35 +456%
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Jun 25 $5 +$44 +809%
Will Resni.ca (Res) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? Jun 25 $39 +$137 +354%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May? Jun 25 $30 +$220 +733%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31? Jun 25 $77 +$219 +285%
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May? Jun 25 $89 +$597 +669%
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $70 on June 26? BUY No 1¢ $91 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 8¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 8¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 8¢ $13 1h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 on June 26? BUY No 1¢ $96 1h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of t BUY Yes 1¢ $76 1h
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 22 above $230? BUY No 2¢ $79 1h
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 22 above $230? BUY No 2¢ $1 1h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of t BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of t BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of t BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of t BUY Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of t BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of t BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 on June 26? BUY No 1¢ $2 2h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of t BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 on June 26? BUY No 1¢ $0 2h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of t BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 on June 26? BUY No 1¢ $0 2h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 on June 26? BUY No 1¢ $0 2h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of t BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of t BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of t BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of t BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of t BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 22 above $230? BUY No 2¢ $0 2h
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 22 above $230? BUY No 2¢ $0 2h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of t BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 on June 26? BUY No 1¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,172.57 · official $10,196.82 (match) · 3500 history records