Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:03:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x45b2…0508
crypto · 708 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$162 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$162 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$162
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses461 / 247
Open positions0
Markets (closed)708 / 708
History coverage48d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 708 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$20
14 days−$43
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 02 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 02 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 02 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 01 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 01 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 01 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 31 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 31 $3 +$3 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 31 $3 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 31 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 31 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 31 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 30 $4 +$5 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 30 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 30 $4 +$1 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$162
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -34.9% -41.1% 44% 44% -38.7%
≤30d 90 -24.9% -32.0% 43% 43% -28.9%
≤90d 708 -3.3% -12.5% 65% 65% -14.4%
all 708 -3.3% -12.5% 65% 65% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 65% -14.4%
10% -20.8% 56% -22.6%
15% -28.5% 13% -30.0%
20% -35.5% 9% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1382 history records