Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:34:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45b3…cc59 crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL −$438 (-40%) realized −$331 · open −$107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$314
other 20% −$31
sports 18% +$23
politics 11% −$107
crypto 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +68.7% +52.6% 45% 41% -9.9%
≤30d 22 +68.7% +52.6% 45% 41% -9.9%
≤90d 22 +68.7% +52.6% 45% 41% -9.9%
all 39 +30.5% +18.0% 36% 33% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.0% 33% -17.6%
10% +6.8% 23% -25.5%
15% -3.6% 23% -32.7%
20% -13.0% 23% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$22 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$331
Unrealized−$107
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage120d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $111 $4 −$107 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $37 +$25 +68%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -90%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 27 $25 −$20 -80%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $25 +$3 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$30 +119%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +21%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 +$68 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$6 +187%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $124 −$33 -27%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? Mar 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? Mar 04 $50 −$38 -76%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? Mar 03 $5 +$4 +71%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? Mar 02 $286 −$269 -94%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 02 $10 −$5 -48%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 28 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 28 $1 +$2 +238%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $13 +$65 +488%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $11 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Croatia 9¢ $5 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $49 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $25 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 23h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 99¢ $28 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 94¢ $60 29h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 29h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 87¢ $25 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.48 · official $4.48 (match) · 85 history records