Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:49:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x45b3…35bc
other · 117 markets active 32d ago
0.0score
−$108,975 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$419,157 · open +$26,315
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$364,883
Realized+$419,157
Unrealized+$26,315
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses103 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)114 / 117
History coverage26d
Avg bet$33,591
Trades / day127.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 11 History 114 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17,753
7 days−$17,753
14 days−$17,524
30 days−$17,524
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $162,142 $184,527 +$22,385 (+14%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $71,227 $71,036 −$191 (-0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $64,444 $67,210 +$2,766 (+4%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $19,500 $19,910 +$410 (+2%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $12,158 $13,116 +$958 (+8%)
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $3,241 $3,408 +$168 (+5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $2,773 $2,922 +$149 (+5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $1,674 $1,761 +$87 (+5%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes 34¢ 16¢ $857 $391 −$467 (-54%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 87¢ 94¢ $352 $380 +$28 (+8%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 85¢ 94¢ $200 $222 +$22 (+11%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Yes 93¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? No 51¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? No 98¢ 0¢ $17,565 $0 −$17,565 (-100%)
Will Trump say "China" during the State of the Union address? Yes 98¢ 0¢ $162 $0 −$162 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Jun 14 $17,565 −$17,565 -100%
Will Trump say "China" during the State of the Union address? Jun 14 $162 −$162 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $2,844 +$140 +5%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 01 $3,708 +$89 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $78,045 +$68,528 +88%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $20,350 +$45,936 +226%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $1,389 +$11 +1%
Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 5M ETH before 2027? May 12 $1,008 +$2 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 10 $760 −$590 -78%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? May 01 $9,960 +$40 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $11,275 +$82 +1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 01 $133,622 +$49,939 +37%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 01 $44,953 +$432 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 01 $265,919 +$2,603 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 01 $124,030 +$734 +1%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 01 $60,389 +$57,375 +95%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 01 $1,587 +$11 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $50,800 +$200 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 01 $19,940 +$60 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 01 $78,870 +$650 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $3,621 +$4 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $15,118 +$15 +0%
Will Trump dance today? Apr 29 $2,991 +$9 +0%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 29 $90 −$88 -98%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 29 $90 −$88 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $4,589 +$11 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 28 $675 +$282,563 +41840%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $4,980 +$20 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $374 −$352 -94%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $2,991 −$2,991 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $3,200 −$52 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $3,444 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $9,968 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $14,475 +$24 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $17,075 +$17 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $27,323 +$32 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $34,965 +$35 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $49,950 +$48 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $6,067 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $539 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $5,519 +$10 +0%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 27 $17,889 +$33 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 26 $410 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 26 $2,810 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 26 $5,016 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 26 $21,928 +$22 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 26 $46,227 +$45 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $76,757 +$93 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 36% +$33,789
world 28% +$378,083
crypto 27% −$116,595
politics 6% +$98,751
economics 4% +$69,178
tech 0% +$19
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $83 31d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,306 31d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $170 34d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 99¢ $67,075 44d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 99¢ $10,000 44d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 46d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 46d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 46d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 46d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 46d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 46d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 46d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 46d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 46d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 46d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 46d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 46d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 99¢ $185 46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5,429 46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $78 46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $709 46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $200 46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 46d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $999 46d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $194 46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $426 46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $142 46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 46d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,998 46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -58.5% -62.5% 40% 0% -74.8%
≤90d 114 +21.7% +10.1% 90% 7% -5.9%
all 114 +21.7% +10.1% 90% 7% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover127.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.1% 7% -5.9%
10% -0.4% 7% -14.9%
15% ← realistic here -10.1% 6% -23.1%
20% -18.9% 5% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364,882.78 · official $364,882.78 (match) · 3500 history records