Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
45 0x45b5…2d74 sports 336 markets active 11d ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,469 (-9%) realized −$10,469 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%150W / 186L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$332per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1,689est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3,779
30 days−$3,567
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$9,980
other 1% −$1,263
world 0% +$41
crypto 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 95 -9.1% -17.8% 47% 46% -19.2%
≤90d 318 -8.1% -16.8% 46% 46% -16.4%
all 336 -11.4% -19.8% 45% 44% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 44% -18.3%
10% -27.5% 44% -26.1%
15% -34.5% 44% -33.3%
20% -40.9% 44% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$306 vs −$307 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10,469
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses150 / 186
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$1,689
Open positions0
Markets (closed)336 / 336
History coverage98d
Avg bet$332
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 336 Trades
no open positions (181 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $24 −$24 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $99 +$136 +138%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $169 −$166 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $152 +$94 +62%
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) Jun 18 $104 +$67 +64%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,986 −$1,956 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $458 −$450 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$142 +140%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $203 +$10 +5%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $192 +$99 +52%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1,267 −$1,249 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $987 +$280 +28%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $512 −$502 -98%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 17 $227 −$225 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $254 −$250 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 16 $208 +$188 +90%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $264 +$227 +86%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $203 +$197 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $203 +$173 +85%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $204 +$179 +88%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $436 +$338 +78%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $558 −$549 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $233 +$200 +86%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $407 −$164 -40%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $203 +$199 +98%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 14 $279 −$275 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 Jun 14 $334 +$255 +76%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $254 −$250 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $395 +$290 +73%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $203 +$144 +71%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $509 +$741 +146%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 13 $484 −$478 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $193 −$190 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1,989 +$1,778 +89%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $292 −$287 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 172.5 Jun 11 $304 −$300 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $242 −$238 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $204 −$200 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 169.5 Jun 11 $274 −$270 -99%
1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $296 +$234 +79%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 166.5 Jun 11 $240 +$206 +86%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 10 $309 +$266 +86%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $304 −$300 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 163.5 Jun 09 $251 −$247 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $361 +$503 +139%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $193 −$11 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 41¢ $102 11d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 35¢ $24 11d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $234 11d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 41¢ $99 11d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 40¢ $169 11d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 48¢ $102 11d
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) SELL Chicago Sky 100¢ $171 11d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $152 11d
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) BUY Chicago Sky 60¢ $104 11d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1,986 12d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $458 12d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $102 12d
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman SELL Ryan Seggerman 52¢ $211 12d
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman SELL Ryan Seggerman 49¢ $2 12d
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Ryan Seggerman 48¢ $203 12d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $291 12d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 65¢ $192 12d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $1,267 12d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $1,267 12d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $987 12d
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 33¢ $512 12d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 64¢ $227 12d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 45¢ $254 12d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) BUY Dallas Wings 52¢ $208 13d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $264 13d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $400 14d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $203 14d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $203 14d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 79¢ $383 14d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 41¢ $204 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 510 history records