Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:24:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45b8…339f crypto 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$162 (+4%) realized +$177 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%19W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day92.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$64
sports 12% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -12.0% -20.4% 26% 24% -11.5%
≤30d 74 -12.0% -20.4% 26% 24% -11.5%
≤90d 74 -12.0% -20.4% 26% 24% -11.5%
all 74 -12.0% -20.4% 26% 24% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 24% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 23% -20.0%
15% -35.0% 22% -27.7%
20% -41.4% 22% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$46 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$177
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses19 / 55
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage4d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day92.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Baltimore Orioles 56¢ 28¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 24 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 24 $37 +$101 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $27 +$23 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -96%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $89 −$87 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $51 +$51 +101%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $84 −$38 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $82 −$78 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $58 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $128 +$612 +479%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$16 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$91 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $70 −$67 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -94%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $81 −$77 -95%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $92 −$90 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $58 −$45 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$11 -95%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$8 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $47 −$10 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $93 −$48 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $42 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $33 −$10 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $102 +$77 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $48 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$44 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $79 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $152 +$42 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $136 +$119 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$25 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 56¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $138 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.00 · official $15.00 (match) · 401 history records