Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45ba…a797 crypto 334 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (211 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,387 (-4%) realized −$1,355 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%158W / 492L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day211.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,947
other 7% −$2,453
sports 3% +$441
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (211 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-55.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 448 -71.8% -74.5% 14% 14% -76.9%
≤30d 650 -50.5% -55.2% 24% 24% -57.0%
≤90d 650 -50.5% -55.2% 24% 24% -57.0%
all 650 -50.5% -55.2% 24% 24% -57.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover211.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.2% 24% -57.0%
10% ← realistic here -59.5% 24% -61.1%
15% -63.4% 24% -64.9%
20% -67.0% 24% -68.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -98% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$112 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized−$1,355
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses158 / 492
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)650 / 334
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$117
Trades / day211.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 650 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 46¢ 62¢ $182 $250 +$68 (+37%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 488 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $411 −$411 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $393 −$393 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $188 −$188 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $189 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $23 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $48 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $136 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.00 · official $198.10 · 3500 history records