Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:57:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45bf…7b62 sports 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$363 (-38%) realized −$360 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%31W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$27
14 days−$90
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$6
politics 36% −$287
other 22% −$31
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 43% -34.1%
≤30d 43 +6.7% -3.4% 58% 58% -24.1%
≤90d 57 +0.5% -9.0% 54% 54% -41.2%
all 57 +0.5% -9.0% 54% 54% -41.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 54% -41.2%
10% -17.7% 51% -46.8%
15% -25.7% 46% -51.9%
20% -33.0% 40% -56.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$21 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$360
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses31 / 26
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage73d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $20 $16 −$3 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 23 $9 +$21 +244%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $28 −$28 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $9 +$9 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $16 −$15 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17 Jun 17 $15 +$10 +66%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +78%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +71%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $8 +$2 +27%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$14 +90%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$4 +24%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$8 +140%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 +$4 +140%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 +$7 +43%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $16 +$13 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $8 +$6 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $24 −$23 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $7 −$6 -90%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $7 +$3 +48%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$5 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $17 +$18 +109%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $8 +$7 +82%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3 −$2 -99%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $30 +$7 +23%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 +$5 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $7 +$6 +90%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $100 −$58 -58%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Kovacevic (+1.5) May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 20 $12 −$12 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $7 −$6 -98%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $7 +$4 +52%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score May 18 $10 +$6 +62%
CD Guadalajara vs. CF Cruz Azul: Both Teams to Score May 17 $10 +$7 +73%
CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central: Both Teams to Score May 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $30 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $16 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $12 5d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 28¢ $9 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 6d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $9 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $6 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $10 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17 BUY 60¢ $15 7d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $12 7d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 58¢ $10 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $10 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $8 7d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $15 7d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $15 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 8d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $13 9d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $10 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 84¢ $5 9d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 9d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 68¢ $9 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 87¢ $2 9d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $15 9d
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $3 9d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 41¢ $6 9d
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 9d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.87 · official $45.89 (match) · 116 history records