Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:30:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45bf…9563 other 379 markets active 1h ago coverage 739d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,676 (+1%) realized +$1,657 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate87%326W / 49L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$792per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$1,179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$185
14 days+$264
30 days+$533
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$1,017
crypto 18% +$892
weather 5% +$24
finance 1% −$3
world 1% −$106
tech 0% +$18
politics 0% +$8
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +1.7% -7.9% 96% 4% -8.3%
≤30d 100 -1.6% -11.0% 91% 2% -8.6%
≤90d 250 -1.0% -10.4% 91% 2% -8.9%
all 375 -3.2% -12.4% 87% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 5% -9.0%
10% -20.8% 1% -17.7%
15% -28.4% 1% -25.6%
20% -35.4% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$965) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$69 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

739d coverage
Net worth$1,179
Realized+$1,657
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses326 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)375 / 379
History coverage739d
Avg bet$792
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 375 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $616 $621 +$5 (+1%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1? No 94¢ 97¢ $345 $358 +$13 (+4%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day 5? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $287 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $682 +$7 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $665 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get 52 million or more views on day 4? Jun 17 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $500 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $628 +$49 +8%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $110 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $312 +$28 +9%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 45 million views on day 3? Jun 16 $2,422 +$23 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get 45 million or more views on day 2? Jun 15 $967 +$5 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 35 million views on day 2? Jun 15 $499 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 37 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $269 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $1,293 +$7 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $695 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 45 million views on day 2 Jun 14 $131 +$2 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $1,570 +$19 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $230 +$37 +16%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1? Jun 14 $500 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $266 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $725 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $647 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 11 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 11 $816 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 10 $279 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 9? Jun 10 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? Jun 08 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 62.5 million views in wee Jun 06 $999 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63 and 63.5 million views in wee Jun 06 $120 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 61 million views in week 1? Jun 06 $258 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 61.5 million views in wee Jun 06 $308 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62.5 and 63 million views in wee Jun 06 $445 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 06 $208 +$5 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61.5 and 62 million views in wee Jun 06 $484 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $238 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $398 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on day 6? Jun 05 $760 +$5 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 97¢ $29 31m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 97¢ $15 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY No 97¢ $32 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 97¢ $486 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY No 97¢ $106 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY No 97¢ $27 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 97¢ $63 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day BUY No 100¢ $92 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day BUY No 100¢ $8 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY No 87¢ $30 13h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY No 92¢ $127 16h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY No 95¢ $5 16h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 92¢ $24 16h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY No 92¢ $18 16h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 100¢ $88 22h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 BUY No 100¢ $475 23h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 100¢ $200 24h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY No 100¢ $400 24h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 BUY No 100¢ $190 24h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 SELL No 98¢ $3 29h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 SELL No 97¢ $100 30h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 SELL No 98¢ $20 30h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 SELL No 98¢ $18 30h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 SELL No 98¢ $18 30h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 SELL No 97¢ $38 30h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 4 BUY No 99¢ $40 31h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 4 BUY No 100¢ $9 31h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 4 BUY No 100¢ $1 36h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 SELL No 94¢ $94 36h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY No 88¢ $1 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,178.82 · official $1,178.82 (match) · 2748 history records