Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:59:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
45 0x45c0…f541 crypto 165 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$611 (+11%) realized +$609 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate82%130W / 28L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day82.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$343
other 26% +$250
world 0% +$1
economics 0% +$1
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 +4.2% -5.7% 82% 51% +0.4%
≤30d 158 +4.2% -5.7% 82% 51% +0.4%
≤90d 158 +4.2% -5.7% 82% 51% +0.4%
all 158 +4.2% -5.7% 82% 51% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 51% +0.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 24% -9.2%
15% -23.0% 17% -18.0%
20% -30.6% 9% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$20 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized+$609
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses130 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)158 / 165
History coverage5d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day82.7
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $69 $70 +$1 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 78¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Yes 93¢ 97¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $61 +$27 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $156 +$13 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $46 +$24 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $35 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$15 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $46 +$20 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $46 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $35 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$9 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $329.66 · official $329.67 (match) · 563 history records