Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:55:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45c1…abdb other 8 markets active 251d ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge! high turnover
Total PnL +$698 (+19%) realized +$698 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$454per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% $0
crypto 28% +$698
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 8 +25.0% +13.1% 38% 38% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.1% 38% +7.9%
10% +2.3% 38% -2.5%
15% -7.6% 38% -11.9%
20% -16.7% 38% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$286 vs −$162 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.32 per $1 lost it wins $5.32
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$698
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage9d
Avg bet$454
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Laak win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Oct 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Oct 21 $801 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Oct 21 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Oct 21 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Oct 12 $162 −$162 -100%
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Oct 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Erick Lindgren win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Oct 12 $1,788 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Oct 12 $854 +$854 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phil Laak win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $13 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Phil Laak win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $13 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.00 · official $12.00 (match) · 152 history records