Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:07:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
45 0x45c4…656a other 44 markets active 3h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$14 (+4%) realized +$15 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$28
sports 27% +$14
crypto 13% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +12.0% +1.3% 54% 46% -5.8%
≤30d 26 +12.0% +1.3% 54% 46% -5.8%
≤90d 26 +12.0% +1.3% 54% 46% -5.8%
all 26 +12.0% +1.3% 54% 46% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 46% -5.8%
10% -8.4% 42% -14.8%
15% -17.2% 42% -23.1%
20% -25.4% 31% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions18
Markets (closed)26 / 44
History coverage7d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$2 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $80 +$13 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +104%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 29h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 29h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 29h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $80 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.66 · official $66.67 (match) · 69 history records