Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:24:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45c5…2a38 sports 153 markets active 2h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$109 (-1%) realized −$117 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate64%95W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$113
14 days+$171
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% −$328
sports 20% −$56
politics 15% +$423
world 14% −$55
crypto 12% −$268
weather 5% +$42
tech 4% −$38
economics 3% +$135
finance 1% +$9
culture 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 81% 62% -5.3%
≤30d 45 +2.5% -7.3% 69% 56% -9.0%
≤90d 92 -22.4% -29.7% 58% 36% -22.2%
all 148 +2.3% -7.4% 64% 44% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 44% -10.5%
10% -16.3% 32% -19.0%
15% -24.4% 24% -26.9%
20% -31.8% 18% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$52 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$532
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses95 / 53
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions5
Markets (closed)148 / 153
History coverage614d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $165 $236 +$72 (+43%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $165 $121 −$44 (-27%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $116 $105 −$12 (-10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $48 $41 −$7 (-15%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $50 −$50 -99%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $301 +$35 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $201 +$29 +14%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $350 +$8 +2%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $301 +$32 +11%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $300 +$25 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$28 +27%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$34 +17%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $163 +$37 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $40 +$12 +31%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $131 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$2 +8%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $151 +$58 +38%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $20 +$6 +29%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $101 +$25 +24%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $21 −$5 -26%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$10 +10%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$30 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$18 +35%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $91 +$9 +10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$9 +57%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $8 −$5 -58%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$30 +152%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $45 +$15 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $78 −$77 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $60 +$22 +36%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 +$8 +38%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $60 +$16 +26%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $78 −$18 -23%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $535 −$441 -82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $737 +$314 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 26? Apr 27 $190 +$10 +5%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeti Apr 25 $83 +$15 +18%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 25 $564 +$34 +6%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 12 $288 −$288 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $50 20h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 89¢ $301 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $201 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $350 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $301 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $300 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $51 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $201 6d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $163 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 6d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 76¢ $40 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $50 7d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 75¢ $78 7d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $81 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 7d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $151 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 8d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 8d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 8d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $101 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 9d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 9d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $10 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $532.41 · official $532.41 (match) · 434 history records