Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45c6…d8bf crypto 868 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (108 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-1%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%439W / 428L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day108.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$43
14 days−$94
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (108 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 659 -2.4% -11.7% 51% 44% -10.5%
≤30d 867 -7.4% -16.2% 51% 45% -11.0%
≤90d 867 -7.4% -16.2% 51% 45% -11.0%
all 867 -7.4% -16.2% 51% 45% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover108.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 45% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 44% -19.5%
15% -31.5% 40% -27.3%
20% -38.2% 36% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses439 / 428
Open positions1
Markets (closed)867 / 868
History coverage14d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day108.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 867 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 50¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 391 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$11 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$11 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$11 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$23 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$11 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$23 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.07 · official $2.08 (match) · 1947 history records