Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:09:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45ca…3cef crypto 475 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (240 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$17,490 (+85%) realized +$17,490 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%244W / 499L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day240.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,642
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (240 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-49.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 618 -59.1% -63.0% 24% 21% -51.9%
≤30d 743 -43.6% -49.0% 33% 28% -41.3%
≤90d 743 -43.6% -49.0% 33% 28% -41.3%
all 743 -43.6% -49.0% 33% 28% -41.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover240.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.0% 28% -41.3%
10% ← realistic here -53.9% 23% -46.9%
15% -58.3% 18% -52.0%
20% -62.4% 14% -56.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +13% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$35 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$17,490
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses244 / 499
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)743 / 475
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day240.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 743 Trades
no open positions (499 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $311 −$311 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $84 −$84 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $396 −$396 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $183 −$183 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $11 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $13 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.28 · official $5.28 (match) · 3500 history records