Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:11:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x45cd…80fb
sports · 9 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$19 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage23d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner DN SOOPers 43¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BNK FEARX 36¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner BNK FEARX 37¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 26¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage NRG 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $20 +$19 +91%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$29 +95%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $36 −$35 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner May 23 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 22 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $10 +$53 +521%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 99¢ $39 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 99¢ $59 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 50¢ $30 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 51¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 18¢ $5 19h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 18¢ $5 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 12¢ $10 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 47¢ $25 21h
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 33¢ $10 44h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY BNK FEARX 36¢ $25 20d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner BUY BNK FEARX 37¢ $20 20d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner BUY DN SOOPers 43¢ $20 21d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL KT Rolster 99¢ $64 23d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 16¢ $10 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -22.8% -30.1% 40% 40% -16.0%
≤30d 9 +12.0% +1.3% 33% 33% -19.1%
≤90d 9 +12.0% +1.3% 33% 33% -19.1%
all 9 +12.0% +1.3% 33% 33% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 33% -19.1%
10% -8.4% 33% -26.8%
15% -17.3% 33% -33.9%
20% -25.4% 33% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records