Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:07:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
45 0x45cf…6d92 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$197 (-14%) realized −$234 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$172
politics 26% −$9
sports 13% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -34.9% -41.1% 33% 33% -32.7%
≤30d 6 -34.9% -41.1% 33% 33% -32.7%
≤90d 6 -34.9% -41.1% 33% 33% -32.7%
all 6 -34.9% -41.1% 33% 33% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 33% -32.7%
10% -46.7% 17% -39.2%
15% -51.9% 17% -45.0%
20% -56.6% 17% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$81 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$504
Realized−$234
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $253 $240 −$13 (-5%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 97¢ $115 $161 +$46 (+40%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $35 −$29 -83%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $91 +$56 +62%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $219 −$125 -57%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $49 −$39 -79%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 −$130 -64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $301 +$36 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 37m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $116 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $35 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $91 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 37¢ $94 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $219 6h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 25¢ $72 7h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $49 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 28h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $254 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 94¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.36 · official $504.44 (match) · 15 history records