Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:09:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45d5…17fc other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$490 (-19%) realized −$494 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%5W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$507
other 32% +$260
crypto 4% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-43.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -37.9% -43.8% 23% 23% -23.3%
≤30d 22 -37.9% -43.8% 23% 23% -23.3%
≤90d 22 -37.9% -43.8% 23% 23% -23.3%
all 22 -37.9% -43.8% 23% 23% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.8% 23% -23.3%
10% -49.2% 23% -30.6%
15% -54.1% 23% -37.3%
20% -58.6% 23% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$212 vs −$84 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$494
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses5 / 17
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 25
History coverage5d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+12%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $253 +$156 +62%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $303 −$297 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $202 +$101 +50%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $275 −$271 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $77 −$75 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $253 +$144 +57%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $82 −$80 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $89 +$573 +642%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $20 −$19 -97%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $154 +$84 +54%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $344 −$340 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 45m
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 47m
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 47m
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL South Africa 100¢ $409 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 61¢ $253 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $303 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $72 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $202 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $203 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $36 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 4d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 4d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $396 4d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 4d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $253 4d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 4d
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $238 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.82 · official $167.84 · 36 history records