Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:05:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
45 0x45d6…d639 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$52 (+4%) realized +$20 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip
Net edge+43%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$1,246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+43.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +58.5% +43.4% 100% 100% +43.1%
≤30d 3 +58.5% +43.4% 100% 100% +43.1%
≤90d 3 +58.5% +43.4% 100% 100% +43.1%
all 3 +58.5% +43.4% 100% 100% +43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.4% 100% +43.1%
10% +29.7% 100% +29.4%
15% +17.2% 100% +16.9%
20% +5.7% 67% +5.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1,246
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage7d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $680 $692 +$12 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $533 $553 +$20 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 +$7 +55%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $122 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 39h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $121 39h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $141 39h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $114 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $112 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $190 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $227 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $109 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $109 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,245.50 · official $1,245.50 (match) · 20 history records