Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:58:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45d6…da4c other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$611 (-16%) realized −$528 · open −$83
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$330
7 days−$426
14 days−$330
30 days−$659
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$607
world 29% −$2
other 15% −$128
crypto 5% −$2
culture 0% $0
politics 0% −$6
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -26.3% -33.4% 29% 25% -40.5%
≤30d 35 -27.7% -34.6% 34% 31% -37.3%
≤90d 40 -19.4% -27.1% 40% 32% -36.1%
all 48 -20.8% -28.4% 38% 27% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 27% -26.6%
10% -35.2% 25% -33.6%
15% -41.5% 17% -40.0%
20% -47.2% 8% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$36 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$528
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 30
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions16
Markets (closed)48 / 64
History coverage219d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 50¢ $10 $24 +$14 (+136%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 22¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+79%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 36¢ 61¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+69%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 16¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 74¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 32¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 24¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $2 $3 +$1 (+33%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-85%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -75%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 −$11 -11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$13 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 16 $173 −$173 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $2 −$2 -93%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$2 -4%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$44 -87%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$28 +27%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +31%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1 $0 -17%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $101 +$44 +44%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $10 −$1 -12%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$21 +42%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 11 $10 −$1 -12%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $16 +$4 +29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $203 +$74 +37%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $20 −$13 -63%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $121 +$39 +32%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 −$9 -84%
Mexico vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $20 +$8 +38%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $101 +$74 +73%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Suns vs. Lakers May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 27 $202 −$202 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 27 $203 −$203 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $20 +$17 +86%
Will "American Girls - Harry Styles" be the #1 song on US Spotify this May 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards May 02 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 02 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 23 $10 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 24 $1,100 −$2 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $1 $0 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 24 $200 −$3 -2%
Silver (SI) Up or Down on February 6? Feb 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 29 $6 $0 +3%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 202 Jan 19 $3 $0 -12%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $1 9h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $2 9h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 64¢ $90 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $101 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $113 25h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $20 2d
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No $0 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 61¢ $49 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain $7 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 3d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $20 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 6d
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 13¢ $9 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 45¢ $51 6d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 16¢ $9 6d
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No $9 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.26 · official $169.26 (match) · 176 history records