Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:38:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45da…56b0 other 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$42 (+5%) realized +$55 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate44%48W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$8
14 days+$6
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$14
crypto 11% −$17
sports 3% −$6
weather 1% −$8
culture 1% −$5
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.7% -24.6% 50% 33% +1.6%
≤30d 13 -16.9% -24.8% 31% 23% -8.3%
≤90d 109 -8.1% -16.9% 44% 32% -10.6%
all 109 -8.1% -16.9% 44% 32% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 32% -10.6%
10% -24.8% 23% -19.2%
15% -32.1% 17% -27.0%
20% -38.7% 15% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 57% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses48 / 61
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)109 / 115
History coverage70d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+23%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 38¢ $37 $21 −$16 (-43%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $36 +$1 +4%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -96%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $8 +$8 +93%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Wi Jun 17 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 15 $23 −$2 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $25 +$8 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $2 $0 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $5 −$2 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $27 −$8 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $3 $0 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $16 −$10 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $12 −$2 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $47 −$10 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $8 −$7 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $6 +$3 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $6 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $67 −$13 -19%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $37 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in April 2026? May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 15 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $6 +$3 +55%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $14 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $3 +$5 +152%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $8 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on April May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bruno Mars have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify lis May 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 2? May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify lis May 08 $3 −$2 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 05 $2 +$3 +166%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $37 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $37 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $36 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $3 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 5¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $16 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $8 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Wi SELL 1¢ $1 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Wi BUY 1¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 2¢ $1 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 7d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 20 BUY 1¢ $2 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 12d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 28d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 28d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 28d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 28d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 28d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 28d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 28d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 28d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 28d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 29d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 29d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.71 · official $55.71 (match) · 290 history records