Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x45db…f976
crypto · 1037 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$392 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$521 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$521
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses326 / 721
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1047 / 1037
History coverage33d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day100.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 0 History 1047 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$145
7 days−$172
14 days−$189
30 days−$447
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 17? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 13? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 21? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 6AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 27? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 6PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 22? No 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 21? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on May 13? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum above 1,790 on June 4, 12AM ET? No 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on May 27? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dundee United FC vs. Livingston FC: O/U 2.5 Over 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C or higher on May 22? No 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 22? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-12? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 31? No 75¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 21? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 14 $9 −$6 -67%
Bengaluru 2: Kokoro Isomura vs Karan Singh Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper Ruud Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bengaluru 2: Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Sasikumar Mukund Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Dino Prizmic Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 64% −$233
weather 32% −$202
sports 3% −$34
other 2% −$25
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 293 -17.9% -25.7% 42% 24% -17.4%
≤30d 900 -19.7% -27.4% 32% 23% -20.0%
≤90d 1047 -21.0% -28.5% 31% 23% -20.8%
all 1047 -21.0% -28.5% 31% 23% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover100.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.5% 23% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -35.3% 18% -28.4%
15% -41.6% 15% -35.3%
20% -47.3% 11% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records