Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45dc…9179 other 300 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$416 (-7%) realized +$83 · open −$499
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate49%139W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$123
14 days−$101
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$139
world 30% −$484
sports 10% +$113
politics 6% +$4
tech 3% +$36
crypto 3% $0
finance 0% −$15
weather 0% +$5
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +12.0% +1.3% 36% 32% -19.6%
≤30d 136 +1.3% -8.4% 51% 46% -7.3%
≤90d 273 -5.7% -14.7% 51% 38% -8.3%
all 283 -7.3% -16.2% 49% 37% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 37% -8.5%
10% -24.2% 30% -17.2%
15% -31.5% 22% -25.2%
20% -38.2% 16% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized+$83
Unrealized−$499
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses139 / 144
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions17
Markets (closed)283 / 300
History coverage186d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-13%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 71¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 61¢ 28¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-55%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ $230 $0 −$230 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$45 +442%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $200 −$55 -28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will 9z qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $5 +$37 +712%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 15 $6 +$1 +19%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $45 −$45 -99%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $36 −$5 -15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $100 +$9 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $71 +$24 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $475 −$62 -13%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $15 +$10 +67%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $3 −$2 -58%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 Jun 11 $5 −$1 -21%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $145 −$12 -8%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $13 +$12 +90%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $155 +$45 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $25 −$15 -60%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 Jun 04 $3 +$2 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $3 −$3 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $6 +$17 +276%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $168 +$50 +30%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 31 $1 $0 +21%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $10 +$31 +298%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $7 +$7 +102%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 29 $20 +$6 +30%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 29 $2 +$1 +67%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 29 $2 +$2 +76%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $102 +$65 +64%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $10 $0 -3%
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 May 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 81¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 7h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 7h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $21 7h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $21 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 17h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 17h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $145 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $7 2d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Conor McGregor 31¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $200 2d
O/U 4.5 Rounds BUY Under 84¢ $6 3d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 51¢ $4 3d
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Under 25¢ $3 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $45 3d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 3d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY No 84¢ $10 3d
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY No 84¢ $20 3d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $21 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 51¢ $30 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 16¢ $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 98¢ $109 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 92¢ $94 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $180 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.40 · official $249.40 (match) · 769 history records