Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x45dd…7181 other 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 311d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,404 (+18%) realized +$6,449 · open −$45
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%30W / 29L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$591per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$266est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1,955now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,849
7 days−$855
14 days+$3,083
30 days+$5,639
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$4,669
sports 37% +$7,178
tech 17% +$2,435
crypto 3% +$227
world 0% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -12.0% -20.4% 42% 42% -12.5%
≤30d 47 +19.0% +7.7% 57% 53% +7.1%
≤90d 59 +4.2% -5.8% 51% 46% +4.9%
all 59 +4.2% -5.8% 51% 46% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 46% +4.9%
10% -14.8% 41% -5.1%
15% -23.0% 34% -14.3%
20% -30.6% 31% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$710) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$448 vs −$285 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

311d coverage
Net worth$1,955
Realized+$6,449
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses30 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$266
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage311d
Avg bet$591
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) New Zealand 66¢ 64¢ $2,000 $1,955 −$45 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $2,020 +$584 +29%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $2,025 +$1,355 +67%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,526 −$17 -1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,212 −$74 -3%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $510 −$500 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,019 +$544 +53%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,046 −$2,000 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 18 $258 −$114 -44%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $755 +$231 +31%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 +$284 +140%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $253 −$249 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $102 −$72 -70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $607 +$346 +57%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 17 $1,025 −$100 -10%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $304 +$205 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $407 +$468 +115%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $307 −$72 -24%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,062 −$112 -11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $513 +$336 +66%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $3,724 +$1,871 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $710 −$527 -74%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$50 +49%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Jun 15 $2,544 −$2,544 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,789 +$2,825 +158%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $856 +$937 +109%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $696 +$161 +23%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $22 +$15 +68%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 05 $37 +$3 +9%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? Jun 05 $308 −$172 -56%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 4? Jun 04 $266 −$250 -94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,101 +$1,899 +172%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 03 $503 +$38 +8%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 03 $52 +$101 +192%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 3? Jun 03 $104 +$104 +100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $52 +$236 +454%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 31 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 31 $206 +$128 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 31 $204 +$62 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 31 $104 +$105 +102%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30? May 29 $68 +$7 +11%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M May 25 $50 −$47 -95%
Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on June 30? May 25 $83 −$65 -78%
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? May 25 $128 +$59 +46%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? May 25 $513 +$451 +88%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 21 $105 −$105 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 21 $105 −$100 -95%
Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30? May 20 $84 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 66¢ $2,020 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $1,143 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $1,461 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $2,020 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,380 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2,025 4h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 44¢ $1,509 4h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 43¢ $1,526 4h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2,138 4h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,029 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $412 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $772 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 33¢ $510 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 57¢ $1,563 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $1,019 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2,046 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Will S BUY 22¢ $102 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? SELL Yes $7 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $403 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $755 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $0 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal $5 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $51 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes $31 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $253 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,954.55 · official $1,954.55 (match) · 175 history records