Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x45dd…4ce2
politics · 106 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$71 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$72 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses5 / 100
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage120d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 1 History 105 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Suns vs. Bucks Bucks 48¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Pistons 58¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Jazz vs. Wizards Wizards 62¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 10 $68 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $130 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $113 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 06 $3 $0 +1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $89 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $78 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $68 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $93 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $77 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $98 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $96 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $107 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $86 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $179 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $79 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $160 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $67 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $88 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $136 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $79 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $111 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $81 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $107 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $105 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $169 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $88 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $67 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $81 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 20 $72 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $126 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $72 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $73 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $106 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% −$2
politics 40% −$2
sports 9% −$67
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $16 3d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $16 4d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $68 23d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $99 23d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $99 25d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $94 38d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $94 38d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $89 40d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $89 40d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $78 40d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $78 40d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 40d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 41d
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $93 41d
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $93 41d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $77 42d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $77 42d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 42d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 42d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $96 43d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $96 43d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $95 43d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $95 43d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 44d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 44d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $87 44d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $87 44d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $79 44d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $79 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 92 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 105 -3.0% -12.2% 5% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -10.9%
10% -20.6% 0% -19.4%
15% -28.3% 0% -27.2%
20% -35.3% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.00 · official $15.00 (match) · 345 history records