Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x45e0…9586 other 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$49 (+2%) realized +$51 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%51W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$81
14 days+$81
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$82
sports 34% −$105
world 1% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +22.2% +10.6% 64% 64% +5.5%
≤30d 26 +10.6% +0.1% 58% 58% -2.0%
≤90d 48 +15.2% +4.2% 62% 62% +0.1%
all 96 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 53% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 53% -9.5%
10% -20.9% 53% -18.1%
15% -28.5% 53% -26.0%
20% -35.5% 48% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$51
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses51 / 45
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage170d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 71¢ 68¢ $43 $41 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $42 −$41 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $40 +$27 +67%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $41 +$30 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $29 +$24 +83%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $34 −$33 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $43 +$47 +109%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$55 +109%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$44 +146%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $22 +$25 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +52%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $24 −$23 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $22 +$12 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 $0 -1%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$9 +44%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $22 +$11 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -99%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $32 +$28 +86%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $32 +$30 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 24 $24 +$20 +83%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 24 $27 +$30 +109%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? May 17 $19 +$11 +60%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 17 $19 +$16 +83%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 17 $24 +$12 +52%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $21 +$18 +83%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $26 −$25 -99%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? May 10 $18 +$10 +57%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? May 10 $18 +$16 +90%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 10 $19 +$20 +105%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) May 03 $23 −$22 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-19? May 02 $14 +$11 +76%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? May 02 $16 +$11 +70%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? May 02 $14 +$18 +129%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $12 +$9 +73%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $13 +$10 +79%
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) Apr 18 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? Apr 18 $16 +$11 +70%
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) Apr 18 $18 +$11 +59%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 18 $18 +$12 +70%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 08 $18 −$17 -99%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Mar 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 22 $20 +$11 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 71¢ $43 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 61¢ $42 7h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 59¢ $40 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 57¢ $41 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $29 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 43¢ $34 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $54 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $43 4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $43 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $50 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 4d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $22 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 5d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $24 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $22 7d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $22 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $22 7d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $20 8d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 66¢ $22 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $22 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $25 10d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 60¢ $31 11d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 53¢ $32 29d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $32 29d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $32 29d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 53¢ $32 29d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $27 36d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 54¢ $24 36d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 54¢ $21 37d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 66¢ $26 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.16 · official $41.16 (match) · 154 history records