Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:24:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x45e1…5934
sports · 357 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$265,604 -173%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$267,291 · open +$1,902
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$74,139
Realized−$267,291
Unrealized+$1,902
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses221 / 294
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$299
Open positions93
Markets (closed)515 / 357
History coverage4d
Avg bet$431
Trades / day937.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 93 History 515 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$268,802
7 days−$267,291
14 days−$267,291
30 days−$267,291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 86¢ 99¢ $11,716 $13,546 +$1,830 (+16%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $12,626 $12,667 +$40 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $10,479 $11,629 +$1,150 (+11%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,793 $3,795 +$2 (+0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? No 98¢ 98¢ $3,383 $3,388 +$5 (+0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 80¢ 84¢ $2,563 $2,661 +$99 (+4%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $1,862 $2,064 +$202 (+11%)
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $1,704 $1,757 +$53 (+3%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? No 89¢ 90¢ $1,315 $1,326 +$11 (+1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,295 $1,297 +$3 (+0%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,164 $1,164 +$1 (+0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $1,003 $1,004 +$0 (+0%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 99¢ 100¢ $957 $969 +$12 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 79¢ 99¢ $768 $963 +$195 (+25%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 91¢ 98¢ $686 $745 +$59 (+9%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $735 $736 +$0 (+0%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 93¢ 91¢ $743 $727 −$16 (-2%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Morocco 89¢ 88¢ $706 $696 −$9 (-1%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $688 $691 +$3 (+0%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 77¢ 74¢ $711 $687 −$24 (-3%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? No 99¢ 100¢ $635 $639 +$3 (+1%)
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 81¢ 69¢ $647 $555 −$92 (-14%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $540 $541 +$1 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 90¢ 36¢ $1,357 $535 −$822 (-61%)
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? No 100¢ 100¢ $502 $502 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $73 −$73 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $83 −$83 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 13 $105 −$105 -100%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 13 $1,335 −$1,335 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $772 −$772 -100%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame Jun 13 $3,633 −$3,633 -100%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 13 $302 −$302 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 13 $14,209 −$14,209 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Jun 13 $205 −$205 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic Jun 13 $3,610 −$3,610 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 13 $3,273 −$3,273 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 13 $316 −$316 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 13 $750 −$750 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 13 $1,958 −$1,958 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 3? Jun 13 $122 −$122 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 13 $123 −$123 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 13 $4,322 −$4,322 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 13 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? Jun 13 $226 −$226 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $357 −$357 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul Jun 13 $2,516 −$2,516 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05? Jun 13 $401 −$401 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 13 $716 −$716 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group Jun 13 $205 −$205 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 13 $527 −$527 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro Jun 13 $244 −$244 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 13 $752 −$752 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM o Jun 13 $201 −$201 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 13 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 13 $10,296 −$10,296 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $4,704 −$4,704 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2,955 −$2,955 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 45% −$7,888
other 37% +$4,673
crypto 11% +$5,543
politics 3% +$4,033
economics 2% +$802
finance 1% +$17
tech 1% +$206
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL No 96¢ $168 0m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 79¢ $450 0m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 91¢ $11 0m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 91¢ $5 1m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 91¢ $455 1m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 91¢ $8 1m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 78¢ $275 1m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 91¢ $23 1m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 84¢ $14 1m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 92¢ $82 1m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 84¢ $63 2m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 78¢ $355 2m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 78¢ $18 2m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 78¢ $7 2m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 78¢ $4 2m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 78¢ $18 2m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 92¢ $12 2m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 89¢ $49 2m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 98¢ $244 2m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $18 2m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 98¢ $21 3m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 98¢ $29 3m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 98¢ $82 3m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 98¢ $49 3m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? SELL No 99¢ $96 4m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 98¢ $49 4m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? SELL No 99¢ $10 4m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 98¢ $49 4m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 98¢ $15 5m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 92¢ $112 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 515 -34.7% -40.9% 43% 25% -73.5%
≤30d 515 -34.7% -40.9% 43% 25% -73.5%
≤90d 515 -34.7% -40.9% 43% 25% -73.5%
all 515 -34.7% -40.9% 43% 25% -73.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover937.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.9% 25% -73.5%
10% -46.5% 12% -76.1%
15% ← realistic here -51.7% 7% -78.4%
20% -56.4% 3% -80.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74,139.47 · official $74,139.55 (match) · 3500 history records