Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45e3…b5da weather 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35 (+1%) realized +$38 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate60%55W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$114
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 90 -6.8% -15.7% 60% 34% -12.5%
≤90d 92 -4.5% -13.6% 60% 35% -10.2%
all 92 -4.5% -13.6% 60% 35% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 35% -10.2%
10% -21.8% 22% -18.8%
15% -29.4% 16% -26.7%
20% -36.3% 16% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$34 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses55 / 37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage32d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $30 $28 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? Jun 21 $58 −$57 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? Jun 20 $50 −$48 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? Jun 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $58 +$73 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? Jun 18 $46 −$45 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 18 $44 +$73 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 18 $56 −$55 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $59 +$20 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $57 +$72 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 −$4 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 +$83 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $51 +$60 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -70%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 $0 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$6 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29? BUY Yes 41¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? BUY Yes 56¢ $58 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? BUY Yes 23¢ $50 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? BUY Yes 44¢ $56 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? BUY Yes 27¢ $42 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? SELL Yes 56¢ $24 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? SELL Yes 56¢ $13 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? SELL Yes 64¢ $40 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 44¢ $18 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 35¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 35¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.68 · official $56.68 (match) · 368 history records