Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:09:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
45 0x45e4…3c69 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,521 (+42%) realized +$11,536 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$3,041per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$267est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$15,984now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$11,094
other 33% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +9.3% -1.1% 50% 50% +79.7%
≤30d 2 +9.3% -1.1% 50% 50% +79.7%
≤90d 2 +9.3% -1.1% 50% 50% +79.7%
all 2 +9.3% -1.1% 50% 50% +79.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 50% +79.7%
10% ← realistic here -10.6% 50% +62.5%
15% -19.2% 50% +46.8%
20% -27.1% 50% +32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +99% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +99% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12,057 vs −$1,023 · ×11.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.79 per $1 lost it wins $11.79
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$15,984
Realized+$11,536
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$267
Open positions7
Markets (closed)2 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3,041
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $4,000 $3,971 −$29 (-1%)
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Virtus.pro 54¢ 82¢ $2,000 $3,057 +$1,057 (+53%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $3,000 $2,976 −$24 (-1%)
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Irina-Camelia Begu 78¢ 76¢ $3,000 $2,936 −$64 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $2,000 $1,978 −$22 (-1%)
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Alexandra Eala 45¢ 44¢ $1,000 $989 −$11 (-1%)
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Diana Shnaider 50¢ 4¢ $1,000 $78 −$922 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,023 −$1,023 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10,165 +$12,057 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 52¢ $1,014 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 55¢ $1,013 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $2,033 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $3,033 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $3,029 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 78¢ $2,013 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Alexandra Eala 45¢ $1,016 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 78¢ $1,007 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 50¢ $1,015 3h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,023 15h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10,165 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,984.48 · official $15,984.48 (match) · 14 history records