Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:25:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45e5…2d01 crypto 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$39 (+6%) realized +$35 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate67%47W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day70.1pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$39
other 25% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -5.8% -14.8% 67% 59% -6.1%
≤30d 70 -5.8% -14.8% 67% 59% -6.1%
≤90d 70 -5.8% -14.8% 67% 59% -6.1%
all 70 -5.8% -14.8% 67% 59% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 59% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 43% -15.1%
15% -30.4% 24% -23.3%
20% -37.2% 13% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses47 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage2d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day70.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Up 48¢ 68¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $60 +$66 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$19 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $7 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $62 −$19 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 52m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $126 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $24 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.20 · official $14.20 (match) · 167 history records