Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:52:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
45 0x45e7…12bf world 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate39%20W / 31L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$9
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$9
world 27% +$25
sports 19% +$5
other 10% −$6
economics 10% $0
culture 4% +$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 38% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 16 -1.9% -11.3% 56% 19% -8.5%
≤90d 28 -0.5% -9.9% 39% 14% -9.3%
all 51 +0.0% -9.5% 39% 8% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 8% -9.2%
10% -18.2% 4% -17.9%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses20 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage273d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $39 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $113 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $113 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $124 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $22 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $112 +$2 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $111 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $132 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1 +$1 +35%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $119 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $23 +$4 +17%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $116 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $85 +$10 +11%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 25 $107 −$2 -2%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 21 $146 −$2 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 21 $69 −$6 -8%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $31 +$9 +30%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $40 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $549 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $603 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $549 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Mar 30 $548 +$1 +0%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $194 $0 +0%
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 15 $23 +$2 +7%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 Mar 15 $169 +$7 +4%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 14 $170 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $27 $0 +1%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 06 $24 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Oct 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 29 $27 $0 +1%
Will Marco Francis win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? Sep 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 28 $22 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 28 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $39 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $67 9h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $46 9h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $113 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $20 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $85 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $8 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $113 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $124 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $124 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $19 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $22 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $11 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $102 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $10 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $102 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $29 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $29 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $112 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $111 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $24 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $24 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $108 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $109 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $119 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $119 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.34 · official $38.34 (match) · 186 history records