Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:00:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45ee…3fb9 crypto 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$33 (-3%) realized −$29 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%18W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +3.6% -6.2% 60% 53% -14.9%
≤30d 30 +3.6% -6.2% 60% 53% -14.9%
≤90d 30 +3.6% -6.2% 60% 53% -14.9%
all 30 +3.6% -6.2% 60% 53% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 53% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 33% -23.1%
15% -23.4% 27% -30.5%
20% -30.9% 13% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$30 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses18 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage3d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Up 47¢ 2¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $14 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $22 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $135 −$130 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $63 +$78 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $87 −$34 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $83 +$36 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$42 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $38 +$20 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $22 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $13 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $106 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $71 +$11 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $72 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $66 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $24 +$43 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $18 +$5 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $6 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $6 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.12 (match) · 82 history records