Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:14:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45f1…131d crypto 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$299 (+2%) realized +$299 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$519per market
Trades / day81.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$550
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -20.8% -28.3% 45% 45% -3.7%
≤30d 29 -20.8% -28.3% 45% 45% -3.7%
≤90d 29 -20.8% -28.3% 45% 45% -3.7%
all 29 -20.8% -28.3% 45% 45% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.3% 45% -3.7%
10% -35.2% 45% -12.9%
15% ← realistic here -41.5% 34% -21.3%
20% -47.2% 34% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$514) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$539 vs −$404 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$299
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$519
Trades / day81.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $2,392 +$2,966 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $1,239 −$1,239 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $514 −$464 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $208 −$204 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $3,530 +$2,356 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $1,865 −$1,800 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $1,034 −$1,034 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $514 −$514 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$40 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $207 +$202 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $1,339 +$902 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $112 +$70 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $524 −$524 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $311 +$190 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $206 +$146 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $23 +$22 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $67 +$41 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $36 +$11 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5,358 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $670 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $640 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $546 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $536 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $457 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $362 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $416 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $33 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $514 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1,440 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $600 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $463 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $646 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $349 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $621 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $817 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $324 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $207 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $403 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records