Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:45:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45f2…c53f world 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate51%24W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$2
other 16% −$4
politics 5% $0
crypto 3% −$1
finance 3% −$2
tech 3% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 -0.9% -10.4% 31% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 20 -5.9% -14.8% 30% 0% -9.8%
all 47 -6.5% -15.4% 51% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 0% -10.3%
10% -23.5% 0% -18.8%
15% -30.9% 0% -26.7%
20% -37.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses24 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage468d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $86 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $22 +$1 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $59 −$2 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $85 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $25 −$2 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $40 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $2 $0 -10%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $14 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $85 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 19 $47 −$2 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $3 $0 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Jun 22 $5 $0 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 -14%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Starmer out before July? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian p May 10 $5 $0 +4%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Apr 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 29 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Apr 29 $5 $0 -0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 28 $2 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 20 $2 $0 -5%
Will John-Ion Banu-Muscel advance to the Romanian Presidential Electio Apr 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Apr 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 14 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 13? Apr 14 $8 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $11 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15? Mar 17 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $3 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 77¢ $40 43m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $40 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $44 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $44 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $21 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $19 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $40 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $44 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $44 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $20 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $25 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $43 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $44 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $44 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $2 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $22 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $16 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $38 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $9 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records